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Reviewing the USMCA

Pursuant to the review of the USMCA provided for in Article 34.7, USTR has requested comments and is holding a hearing. USTR's comments portal shows 1,515 comments submitted, so a lot of people had things to say!
Simon Lester, Inu Manak 12 Nov 2025 3 min read

Trump's Cambodia Trade Deal, Arms Exports, and the Role of Non-Trade Concessions

In this post, I'm going to talk about some aspects of the recent U.S. trade deal with Cambodia that I haven't heard raised yet, including the following questions: (1) Is the decision to allow U.S. arms exports to Cambodia pursuant to this deal designed to boost U.S. manufacturing?
Simon Lester 10 Nov 2025 4 min read

Is Section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act a Fall-Back Option for Trump to Impose Tariffs?

Without IEEPA authority, as we have all discussed, where there is a will, there is a way. In all likelihood, this way involves the expanded use of other statutory authorities, such as Section 232 of the 1962 Trade Expansion Act and Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974. In
Mona Paulsen 07 Nov 2025 4 min read

Roundup of IEEPA Hearing Commentary

I listened to today's Supreme Court hearing on the IEEPA tariff cases, but it was clear to me that I am not well-positioned to offer good insights on how the Court might rule. (The transcript is here if anyone wants to give this kind of tea leaf reading a shot themselves).
Simon Lester 05 Nov 2025 8 min read

Economic and National Security Provisions in U.S. Trade Agreements

A few weeks ago, I wrote a post cautioning everyone to "Beware the 'Securitization' of Trade Policy." So far, however, it looks like my post has been a big failure, as many people seem to be throwing caution to the wind, and instead of being wary
Simon Lester 03 Nov 2025 4 min read

Bound Rates and the Stakes of the Cambodian Trade Deal

Far from being incoherent, the United States’ recent moves against trading partners suggest a unique restructuring of its economic structure, with executive-dominated foreign investments planned to drive much of its future economic growth. I’ll focus on the Agreement concluded with Cambodia for this post. Cambodia has not signed a
Mona Paulsen 31 Oct 2025 9 min read

The Future of U.S. Big Tech and Social Media (and a Quick Thought on Manufacturing)

As the saying goes, it's difficult to make predictions, especially about the future, but in a piece I wrote for the Baker Institute, I argue that the social media landscape is going to become smaller and more global, with U.S. big tech control declining. Is this just
Simon Lester 30 Oct 2025 3 min read

Tracking Foreign Investments in the U.S. Pursuant to Trump's Trade Deals

According to President Trump and his administration, one of the most important elements of the trade deals they are negotiating right now is the commitments being made by foreign governments and companies to invest in the U.S. The aggregate figures mentioned in this regard have been as high as
Simon Lester 29 Oct 2025 2 min read

Some Questions about the Cambodia and Malaysia Trade Deals

The White House released the texts of trade agreements with Cambodia and Malaysia today. I have lots of questions about this.
Simon Lester 26 Oct 2025 3 min read

Why Not Use the Phase One Deal's Enforcement Mechanism?

On Friday, USTR initiated a Section 301 investigation of "China’s implementation of the Economic and Trade Agreement Between the Government of the United States of America and the Government of the People’s Republic of China ('Phase One Agreement')."
Simon Lester 26 Oct 2025 3 min read

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International Economic Law and Policy Blog

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Trade War Games (Review of How To Win a Trade War)

This blog post will offer a brief review of "How To Win a Trade War," by famous podcasters and think tankers/journalists Chad Bown and Soumaya Keynes. I wanted to post something in time for their official book launch (which is today), but I only got the book
20 May 2026 8 min read

Tracking Goods Exports under the Trump Administration's Trade Policies

My sense is that one of the reasons some traditionally pro-trade members of Congress have continued to support Trump's trade policies, despite misgivings they may have about tariffs, is because they hope these policies will pry open foreign markets, leading to increased US exports.
07 May 2026 8 min read

Could Congress Extend the USMCA for Another Term?

People have been assuming that the decision on whether to extend the USMCA for another term is up to President Trump, but based on the language of the USMCA related to the upcoming joint review, could Congress actually have the power to make this decision on its own?
04 May 2026 4 min read

Is There No Going Back on Trade? What Is the Path Forward? A Response to Lighthizer

Former U.S. Trade Rep. Bob Lighthizer has a new essay in Foreign Affairs, and I have some thoughts. I'm going to start with his brief big picture points on the direction of U.S. trade policy, and then go through a couple of the specific concepts he emphasizes.
27 Apr 2026 6 min read

The Section 301 Excess Capacity Investigation Needs Less Madness, More Method

Shortly after the Supreme Court ruled President Trump’s emergency tariffs under IEEPA  unconstitutional, the administration scrambled to rebuild its tariff wall. While the announcement of Section 122 tariffs immediately following the ruling will provide a temporary patch, the U.S. Trade Representative’s office quickly began to utilize another
24 Apr 2026 6 min read

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