How Difficult Will It Be Politically To Remove Trump's Tariffs?

Heather Hurlburt, who was the Chief of Staff for U.S. Trade Rep. Katherine Tai from 2022-2024, recently poured some cold water on the idea that Trump's tariffs might be removed quickly after he is out of office, citing the revenue they bring in as a key reason:

Up to the early 1900s, the U.S. did not have an income tax, and tariffs were one of the primary means of raising money for the U.S. Treasury. And because this is not something that was true in the lifetimes of most Americans, we have gotten used to not thinking about it, or thinking about it as an illegitimate use for tariffs. And that the legitimate uses for tariffs are ... related to national security or to protection of specific industries and jobs. But in fact, our predecessors very much saw tariffs as a perfectly legitimate revenue-raising strategy. ...

So my contention is that in the current moment, because of the changes to our tax structure and the skyrocketing levels of our deficit, it's going to be very hard for any future president from any political party to forego revenue. So we shouldn't expect a complete and instant rollback because that's a political leader giving up revenue, which they're just not going to do. So that's point 1.

Point 2 is ... that we've seen from the Trump tariffs that there are some industries and sectors that perceive that they have benefited, and it's very hard, and again politically challenging, to pull that back.

I see her points here and there is some logic to them. However, on the issue of giving up revenue in the midst of high budget deficits, I think it's worth noting that the Trump tariffs have coincided with a period of well above average budget deficits. As the first Section 232/301 tariffs were being imposed under Trump, the budget deficit started increasing, and the trend of both higher tariffs and higher budget deficits has continued since then.

In addition, Heather takes us back to the early 1900s and before, when tariff revenue played a bigger role. But given the size of the federal government today, there's no level at which tariffs can be set that will make more than a modest dent in the deficit/debt.

All of this suggests that high tariffs are not an effective way of addressing budget deficits or the debt, and what we need with U.S. fiscal policy at the moment is a broader rethink of tax revenues and spending. Tariff revenues may not be totally irrelevant here, but they are a somewhat marginal component of the discussion.

Even if I'm right about all this in an objective sense, though, how will things play out in political debates? What will future legislators and executive branch officials think? And what will the voters want here (to the extent we can figure that out)?

My points above should be fairly easy to communicate with simple charts showing the tariff increases along with the rising budget deficit and debt, so I'm hopeful this can work politically for a future president who may be interested in pursuing the removal of these tariffs. As noted, tariff revenue is simply not the main factor in dealing with budget deficits/debt, and the focus of the tariff debate should be on the broader impact of the tariffs on the economy and on relations with other countries (which, in my view, hasn't been great so far).

With regard to Heather's point about whether any changes can be "instant," it is true that tariff removal on the proverbial "day 1" of the presidency might be difficult. There are processes that need to be followed under tariff provisions such as Section 301, and if a future administration were making an effort to follow the rules when removing tariffs, it might want to be sure everything was done properly. Nevertheless, if the administration were inclined to go in that direction, it could probably do things pretty quickly.

As to "complete" removal, this could be tough because of the China element. Politically speaking, removal of China-specific tariffs will be a challenge. Someone will have to come up with a coherent alternative policy in relation to China in order to get those tariffs removed (this can be done, but it won't be easy). However, I would think most of the non-China Trump tariffs could be rolled back over time. Yes, as Heather notes, there are special interests who have benefitted and will want to keep them in place. But if you'll permit me a bit of wishful thinking, we may be at a moment where people are fed up with the government catering to special interests.