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By Simon Lester in Trump Administration —

Will Trump's Trade Deals Increase U.S. Exports?

One of the criticisms of the Biden administration on trade policy was that it didn't put enough effort into improving access for U.S. producers to foreign markets. The Trump administration, by contrast, has made this one of its priorities. But will its approach to market access work? Let's look at the some recent Trump administration announcements about the trade deals it has been negotiating, focusing on market access for trade in goods (which the Trump administration thinks is particularly important).

I'll start with the EU, where a White House fact sheet says:

  • Unleashing American Energy: The EU will double down on America as the Energy Superpower by purchasing $750 billion of U.S. energy exports through 2028. This will strengthen the United States’ energy dominance, reduce European reliance on adversarial sources, and narrow our trade deficit with the EU.
  • Tariff Barriers:  The European Union will work with the United States to eliminate tariffs in various sectors and will provide meaningful quotas for other products, which when combined will create commercially meaningful market access opportunities for a significant amount of U.S. goods exports to the European Union, supporting high-quality American jobs.
  • Non-Tariff Barriers for U.S. Industrial Exports: The European Union will work to address a range of U.S. concerns related to various EU requirements that are burdensome to U.S. exporters, particularly small and medium-sized businesses, including through efforts to eliminate the red tape that U.S. exporters face when doing business in the European Union.
  • Non-Tariff Barriers for U.S. Agriculture Exports: The United States and the European Union intend to work together to address non-tariff barriers affecting trade in food and agricultural products, including streamlining requirements for sanitary certificates for U.S. pork and dairy products.

Then on Japan, a fact sheet says:

SECURING INCREASED MARKET ACCESS FOR AMERICAN PRODUCERS: For decades, U.S. companies have faced barriers when seeking access to Japan’s market. This agreement delivers breakthrough openings across key sectors:
  • Agriculture and Food:
  • Japan will immediately increase imports of U.S. rice by 75%, with a major expansion of import quotas;
  • Japan will purchase $8 billion in U.S. goods, including corn, soybeans, fertilizer, bioethanol, and sustainable aviation fuel.
  • Energy:
  • Major expansion of U.S. energy exports to Japan;
  • The US and Japan are exploring a new offtake agreement for Alaskan liquefied natural gas (LNG).
  • Manufacturing and Aerospace:
  • Japan has committed to purchase U.S.-made commercial aircraft, including an agreement to buy 100 Boeing aircraft;
  • Additional billions of dollars annually of purchases of U.S. defense equipment, enhancing interoperability and alliance security in the Indo-Pacific.
  • Automobiles and Industrial Goods:
  • Longstanding restrictions on U.S. cars and trucks will be lifted, granting U.S. automakers access to the Japanese consumer market; U.S. Automotive standards will be approved in Japan for the first time ever.
  • Broader openings for a range of industrial and consumer goods, leveling the playing field for American producers.

And on Indonesia, a fact sheet says:

  • Eliminating Tariff Barriers: Indonesia will eliminate tariff barriers, on a preferential basis, on over 99% of U.S. products exported to Indonesia across all sectors, including for all agricultural products, health products, seafood, information and communications technology, automotive products, and chemicals, which will create commercially meaningful market access opportunities for the full range of U.S. exports, supporting high-quality American jobs.
  • Breaking Down Non-Tariff Barriers for U.S. Industrial Exports: Indonesia will address a range of non-tariff barriers, including by: (1) exempting U.S. companies and originating goods from local content requirements; (2) accepting vehicles built to U.S. federal motor vehicle safety and emissions standards; (3) accepting FDA certificates and prior marketing authorizations for medical devices and pharmaceuticals; (4) exempting U.S. exports of cosmetics, medical devices, and other manufactured goods from burdensome certification and labeling requirements; (5) removing import restrictions or licensing requirements on U.S. remanufactured goods and their parts; (6) eliminating pre-shipment inspection or verification requirements on imports of U.S. goods; (7) adopting and implementing good regulatory practices; (8) taking steps to resolve many long-standing intellectual property issues identified in USTR’s Special 301 Report; and (9) addressing U.S. concerns with conformity assessment procedures.
  • Breaking Down Non-Tariff Barriers for U.S. Agriculture Exports: Indonesia will address and prevent barriers to U.S. agricultural products in the Indonesian market, including by: (1) exempting U.S. food and agricultural products from all of Indonesia’s import licensing regimes including its commodity balance policy; (2) ensuring transparency and fairness with respect to geographical indications (GIs) including meats and cheeses; (3) providing permanent Fresh Food of Plant Origin (FFPO) designation for all applicable U.S. plant products; and (4) recognizing U.S. regulatory oversight, including listing of all U.S. meat, poultry, and dairy facilities and accepting certificates issued by U.S. regulatory authorities.

The overall message here seems to be that the the Trump administration thinks it has negotiated significant market opening, and U.S. exports of industrial and agricultural goods to the EU, Japan, and Indonesia should go up as a result of these agreements.

But will they go up? That will be one metric on which to judge the success of the Trump administration's trade policy.

In doing that judging, what exactly should we be looking at? One focus will be on specific sectors. Trump and people in his administration have complained about the EU not buying enough U.S.-made cars or U.S. beef. Is that going to change as the result of the EU deal?

In the case of Japan, "restrictions on U.S. cars and trucks" are explicitly mentioned in the fact sheet. Will exports of U.S.-made cars and trucks to Japan increase as a result of the Japan deal?

Along the same lines as these broader framework deals, the Trump administration recently announced a "historic market access" victory related to "the Australian Government’s decision to open its market to U.S. fresh and frozen beef." In practice, as the Australians explained, fully U.S.-origin beef can already be sold there, but the Australian regulatory change means "expanded access to include cattle that had been slaughtered in the US but may have come from Canada or Mexico." So what will the impact be in terms of U.S. beef exports to Australia?

And then beyond these specific sectors, we can also look at the overall trend in U.S. exports after the deals are signed (or a tariff letter is sent out).

A lot of the focus of the analysis of Trump's trade policy has been on the impact on imports into the U.S., but let's also pay attention to see what happens to U.S. exports.