Finishing the NAFTA Renegotiation: Some Outstanding Issues

There are reports that an "agreement in principle" on a new NAFTA is almost ready. Will they try to resolve all of the major points as part of this, or will they gloss over some of them? I'm not sure. Anyway, here are 13 issues I'm watching to see if/how they are handled:

-- Investor protections and investor-state dispute settlement (ISDS). It sounds like the U.S. will be opting out of ISDS, but what will happen to the substantive protections? Will there be any changes there? And with the U.S. opting out of NAFTA ISDS, will Canada and Mexico bother with anything as between themselves, given that they will have TPP ISDS?

-- State-state dispute settlement. At one point, it sounded like the U.S. wanted to "soften" this, but we haven't heard anything recently, and it's hard to see Congress or Canada/Mexico going along with that approach.

-- Chapter 19 disputes. The U.S. has said it wants Chapter 19 eliminated; Canada and Mexico want to keep it. Is there a middle ground? We haven't heard much about this recently either.

-- Sunset clause/performance review. The suggestion for an automatic expiration of NAFTA unless all three governments decide to stay in always seemed like a non-starter. But is there some possibility for a periodic performance review?

-- Rules of origin for autos. This issue has been discussed in great detail in the negotiations. Is there some new approach they can develop that looks like a change, but does not disrupt the integrated production network that keeps North American production competitive? Or will they make a change that is so burdensome that auto/auto parts trade takes place largely outside of NAFTA tariff preferences?

-- Government procurement. I fear that existing liberalization of government procurement will be substantially scaled back in a new NAFTA. The question is, by how much?

-- Modernization. Is there anything new and exciting in the modernized provisions of NAFTA? How will the Labor, IP, E-Commerce, Anti-Corruption, and SOE provisions compare to what was in the TPP?

-- Currency manipulation. Will there be a binding and enforceable chapter on currency manipulation? It sounds like the U.S. is pushing for that.

-- Canadian dairy restrictions. Is this still on the agenda? I haven't heard much about it recently.

-- Regulatory issues. Will this go beyond the TPP regulatory coherence chapter? How much, if any, of the current RCC model will be incorporated?

-- Seasonal growers. Will the NAFTA make it easier for seasonal growers to bring anti-dumping cases?

-- De minimis thresholds. Will Canada and Mexico agree to raise their thresholds (perhaps to the US $800 per shipment level) so that low value shipments can cross the border duty-free?

-- Progressive issues. Will trade/gender and trade/indigenous rights chapters be included?