There have been a lot of U.S. tariffs in recent months, and it's getting hard to keep track of them all. This post deals with the IEEPA "reciprocal tariffs" announced on April 2, rather than the earlier IEEPA fentanyl tariffs or the various Section 232 tariffs or any other tariffs. Soon after imposing the April 2 tariffs, President Trump announced a 90 day pause on a portion of the tariffs, starting on April 9 (except for tariffs on Chinese imports, which were increased because China had retaliated). That modification left us with a 10% baseline tariff in place on all countries except China, with the Trump administration indicating that negotiations would now begin on issues related to the tariffs and non-tariff barriers of these countries. An administration official suggested they could sign "90 deals in 90 days."
I have a few questions about the trade deals that may (or may not) result from these negotiations.
1. What will the content of these agreements be? A recent Washington Post article identified the following possibilities for things the U.S. will be pushing for:
- Lower tariffs on U.S. exports
- Purchases of U.S. natural gas
- Removal of barriers for U.S. agriculture exports
- Lower taxes on U.S. tech companies
- Coordination on limiting imports from China
- Stopping transshipment of goods from China
You can also imagine coordination on export controls and investment screening being in there; weakening of the regulations affecting U.S. tech companies; and language related to currency manipulation.
2. Will the U.S. undertake obligations too? Presumably a big ask of the other countries will be to remove the reciprocal/baseline tariffs, but they may push for other things as well.
3. Relatedly, how will these agreements play in the domestic politics of other countries? Will governments be accused of caving to U.S. demands if they can't show they got something more than just the tariff rates that existed prior to Trump raising the tariffs?
4. Will there be any formal process for outside input into the negotiation of these agreements? At the moment, it does not seem like there will be.
5. Will these agreements be durable? Will there be a text, or will it be more of a handshake agreement?
6. Assuming there will be a text, will there be some sort of dispute settlement mechanism in the agreements? The 2019 U.S.-Japan trade agreement had a simple request for consultations procedure, with nothing further spelled out. The U.S.-China Phase One deal had what I have characterized as an internationalized version of Section 301, under which one party can declare the other to be in violation and then impose duties. And then standard FTAs have an adjudication mechanism under which panels assess formal complaints of violation filed by a party. Will any of these be used? Or will there be nothing at all included in these agreements about dispute settlement?
7. Will there be a formal process for the Trump administration to make its assessments of compliance with the agreements? How transparent will this decision-making be? Will they seek public comments?
8. What role will Congress play here? Will they hold hearings? Will they offer a formal endorsement like they did with the U.S.-Taiwan trade deal legislation in 2023? Would that kind of action shift these new agreements from being purely trade executive agreements into something with a stronger domestic legal foundation?
9. How many agreements will there be? Over on Bluesky, I guessed 5-20. Will that prediction be close to the reality?
10. What statutory authority will the administration cite for negotiating these deals? The tariffs were imposed under IEEPA. Is IEEPA broad enough to allow for negotiating trade deals of this sort?
11. Will there be adjacent issues that exist separately from the trade part of the agreements, such as agreements to purchase specific U.S. military equipment?
