There was a great deal of anticipation about what tariffs Trump might impose on his first day in office, but ultimately we just got a memo. (In response to a question from a reporter, Trump did say "We're thinking in terms of 25 percent [tariffs] on Mexico and Canada ... I think we'll do it February 1.")
The memo has a number of items worth noting.
First, there are going to be investigations of trade deficits and reviews of unfair trade practices:
Sec. 2. Addressing Unfair and Unbalanced Trade. (a) The Secretary of Commerce, in consultation with the Secretary of the Treasury and the United States Trade Representative, shall investigate the causes of our country’s large and persistent annual trade deficits in goods, as well as the economic and national security implications and risks resulting from such deficits, and recommend appropriate measures, such as a global supplemental tariff or other policies, to remedy such deficits.
...
(c) The United States Trade Representative, in consultation with the Secretary of the Treasury, the Secretary of Commerce, and the Senior Counselor for Trade and Manufacturing, shall undertake a review of, and identify, any unfair trade practices by other countries and recommend appropriate actions to remedy such practices under applicable authorities, including, but not limited to, the Constitution of the United States; sections 71 through 75 of title 15, United States Code; sections 1337, 1338, 2252, 2253, and 2411 of title 19, United States Code; section 1701 of title 50, United States Code; and trade agreement implementing acts.
It's worth mentioning that there were similar initiatives at the start of Trump's first term in office. There was Executive Order 13796—Addressing Trade Agreement Violations and Abuses, April 29, 2017; and there was Executive Order 13786 - Omnibus Report on Significant Trade Deficits, on March 31, 2017. (Apparently they are getting things going more quickly this time.)
They also talk about creating a new office to handle tariff matters:
(b) The Secretary of the Treasury, in consultation with the Secretary of Commerce and the Secretary of Homeland Security, shall investigate the feasibility of establishing and recommend the best methods for designing, building, and implementing an External Revenue Service (ERS) to collect tariffs, duties, and other foreign trade-related revenues.
I'm curious what the DOGE folks will say about this idea in terms of its efficiency.
There is also this about the USMCA:
(d) The United States Trade Representative shall commence the public consultation process set out in section 4611(b) of title 19, United States Code, with respect to the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) in preparation for the July 2026 review of the USMCA. Additionally, the United States Trade Representative, in consultation with the heads of other relevant executive departments and agencies, shall assess the impact of the USMCA on American workers, farmers, ranchers, service providers, and other businesses and make recommendations regarding the United States’ participation in the agreement. The United States Trade Representative shall also report to appropriate congressional committees on the operation of the USMCA and related matters consistent with section 4611(b) of title 19, United States Code.
That one may be the least surprising, given the upcoming 2026 USMCA review.
Then there's this one on the currency practices of foreign governments:
(e) The Secretary of the Treasury shall review and assess the policies and practices of major United States trading partners with respect to the rate of exchange between their currencies and the United States dollar pursuant to section 4421 of title 19, United States Code, and section 5305 of title 22, United States Code. The Secretary of the Treasury shall recommend appropriate measures to counter currency manipulation or misalignment that prevents effective balance of payments adjustments or that provides trading partners with an unfair competitive advantage in international trade, and shall identify any countries that he believes should be designated as currency manipulators.
There have been occasional rumblings over the past year about dollar devaluation, but I'm not sure I see anything strong enough in here to suggest this is coming.
And there will be a review of the "general level of reciprocal and mutually advantageous concessions" in existing trade agreements:
(f) The United States Trade Representative shall review existing United States trade agreements and sectoral trade agreements and recommend any revisions that may be necessary or appropriate to achieve or maintain the general level of reciprocal and mutually advantageous concessions with respect to free trade agreement partner countries.
And a push for market access through bilateral or sector-specific agreements:
(g) The United States Trade Representative shall identify countries with which the United States can negotiate agreements on a bilateral or sector-specific basis to obtain export market access for American workers, farmers, ranchers, service providers, and other businesses and shall make recommendations regarding such potential agreements.
This was something we didn't get much of with the Biden administration. Interestingly, while the Trump administration is likely to be trying to close the U.S. market, it may also be pushing hard to open foreign markets.
Ratcheting up of AD/CVD (maybe bringing back "zeroing"?):
h) The Secretary of Commerce shall review policies and regulations regarding the application of antidumping and countervailing duty (AD/CVD) laws, including with regard to transnational subsidies, cost adjustments, affiliations, and “zeroing.” Further, the Secretary of Commerce shall review procedures for conducting verifications pursuant to section 1677m of title 19, United States Code, and assess whether these procedures sufficiently induce compliance by foreign respondents and governments involved in AD/CVD proceedings. The Secretary of Commerce shall consider modifications to these procedures, as appropriate.
An investigation of discriminatory or extraterritorial taxes imposed by foreign governments:
(j) The Secretary of the Treasury, in consultation with the Secretary of Commerce and the United States Trade Representative, shall investigate whether any foreign country subjects United States citizens or corporations to discriminatory or extraterritorial taxes pursuant to section 891 of title 26, United States Code.
Maybe the discriminatory tax part will focus on digital taxes?
Looking into ratcheting up Buy American procurement:
(k) The United States Trade Representative, in consultation with the Senior Counselor for Trade and Manufacturing, shall review the impact of all trade agreements — including the World Trade Organization Agreement on Government Procurement — on the volume of Federal procurement covered by Executive Order 13788 of April 18, 2017 (Buy American and Hire American), and shall make recommendations to ensure that such agreements are being implemented in a manner that favors domestic workers and manufacturers, not foreign nations.
Then there's a big section on China:
Sec. 3. Economic and Trade Relations with the People’s Republic of China (PRC). (a) The United States Trade Representative shall review the Economic and Trade Agreement Between the Government of the United States of America and the Government of the People’s Republic of China to determine whether the PRC is acting in accordance with this agreement, and shall recommend appropriate actions to be taken based upon the findings of this review, up to and including the imposition of tariffs or other measures as needed.
(b) The United States Trade Representative shall assess the May 14, 2024, report entitled “Four-Year Review of Actions Taken in the Section 301 Investigation: China’s Acts, Policies, and Practices Related to Technology Transfer, Intellectual Property, and Innovation” and consider potential additional tariff modifications as needed under section 2411 of title 19, United States Code — particularly with respect to industrial supply chains and circumvention through third countries, including an updated estimate of the costs imposed by any unfair trade practices identified in such review — and he shall recommend such actions as are necessary to remediate any issues identified in connection with this process.
(c) The United States Trade Representative shall investigate other acts, policies, and practices by the PRC that may be unreasonable or discriminatory and that may burden or restrict United States commerce, and shall make recommendations regarding appropriate responsive actions, including, but not limited to, actions authorized by section 2411 of title 19, United States Code.
(d) The Secretary of Commerce and the United States Trade Representative shall assess legislative proposals regarding Permanent Normal Trade Relations with the PRC and make recommendations regarding any proposed changes to such legislative proposals.
(e) The Secretary of Commerce shall assess the status of United States intellectual property rights such as patents, copyrights, and trademarks conferred upon PRC persons, and shall make recommendations to ensure reciprocal and balanced treatment of intellectual property rights with the PRC.
With regard to enforcing the U.S.-China Phase One deal, I never heard about any enforcement actions under this deal during the Biden administration, and it's not totally clear how this would work in practice and how much transparency there will be. (Article 7.4.1 says: "The Appeal and any information and matters related to it are confidential and shall not be shared beyond the Bilateral Evaluation and Dispute Resolution Office, absent the agreement of the Parties.")
There's a broad section on "economic security," which says:
Sec. 4. Additional Economic Security Matters. (a) The Secretary of Commerce, in consultation with the Secretary of Defense and the heads of any other relevant agencies, shall conduct a full economic and security review of the United States’ industrial and manufacturing base to assess whether it is necessary to initiate investigations to adjust imports that threaten the national security of the United States under section 1862 of title 19, United States Code.
(b) The Assistant to the President for Economic Policy, in consultation with the Secretary of Commerce, the United States Trade Representative, and the Senior Counselor for Trade and Manufacturing, shall review and assess the effectiveness of the exclusions, exemptions, and other import adjustment measures on steel and aluminum under section 1862 of title 19, United States Code, in responding to threats to the national security of the United States, and shall make recommendations based upon the findings of this review.
(c) The Secretary of State and the Secretary of Commerce, in cooperation with the heads of other agencies with export control authorities, shall review the United States export control system and advise on modifications in light of developments involving strategic adversaries or geopolitical rivals as well as all other relevant national security and global considerations. Specifically, the Secretary of State and the Secretary of Commerce shall assess and make recommendations regarding how to maintain, obtain, and enhance our Nation’s technological edge and how to identify and eliminate loopholes in existing export controls -– especially those that enable the transfer of strategic goods, software, services, and technology to countries to strategic rivals and their proxies. In addition, they shall assess and make recommendations regarding export control enforcement policies and practices, and enforcement mechanisms to incentivize compliance by foreign countries, including appropriate trade and national security measures.
(d) The Secretary of Commerce shall review and recommend appropriate action with respect to the rulemaking by the Office of Information and Communication Technology and Services (ICTS) on connected vehicles, and shall consider whether controls on ICTS transactions should be expanded to account for additional connected products.
(e) The Secretary of the Treasury, in consultation with the Secretary of Commerce and, as appropriate, the heads of any other relevant agencies, shall review whether Executive Order 14105 of August 9, 2023 (Addressing United States Investments in Certain National Security Technologies and Products in Countries of Concern) should be modified or rescinded and replaced, and assess whether the final rule entitled “Provisions Pertaining to U.S. Investments in Certain National Security Technologies and Products in Countries of Concern,” 89 Fed. Reg. 90398 (November 15, 2024), which implements Executive Order 14105, includes sufficient controls to address national security threats. The Secretary of the Treasury shall make recommendations based upon the findings of this review, including potential modifications to the Outbound Investment Security Program.
(f) The Director of the Office of Management and Budget shall assess any distorting impact of foreign government financial contributions or subsidies on United States Federal procurement programs and propose guidance, regulations, or legislation to combat such distortion.
(g) The Secretary of Commerce and the Secretary of Homeland Security shall assess the unlawful migration and fentanyl flows from Canada, Mexico, the PRC, and any other relevant jurisdictions and recommend appropriate trade and national security measures to resolve that emergency.
Item (g) seems like it is what could trigger some IEEPA tariffs, so it's a big deal. Item (b), if it revisits the Section 232 steel and aluminum tariffs, could be significant too. And item (f) might mirror the EU's Foreign Subsidies Regulation, which is interesting.
And finally, there's a section which tells the agencies when the results of their reviews, investigations, findings, identifications, and recommendations are due (between April 1 and April 30, depending on the issue).