After almost two days of intense discussion on Twitter and elsewhere, here's where I am now on the issue of vaccine production and the TRIPS waiver. The most important point here is whether additional factories around the world could produce vaccines. In order to do so, they would need to have licensing deals with the pharmaceutical companies who have the patents and the know how to make the vaccines (obviously, the situation of the mRNA vaccines and the more traditional ones is a bit different). There seems to be a factual debate on whether, or to what extent, other factories would actually have the capability to do this production. I haven't seen anything definitive about what's possible here, but if it can be done at all, we need to make it happen as soon as possible.
So how to make it happen? It seems to me the quickest way is to pay Pharma a lot of money to get them to go along with it. People keep throwing out $100 billion as a figure, and that's a nice round number I can get behind, but the precise number doesn't matter too much. Whatever it takes.
I suggested this Pharma buyout plan to a progressive friend of mine, and this person seemed reluctant. I understand that Pharma already has made a lot of money here, and that there may be options that involve something more along the lines of governments taking the technology from Pharma. There are a number of problems with this approach, however, one of which is that it will be slower than a buyout. People are dying and we need to act fast.
I think people are aware that I'm a skeptic on IP protection. In my view, it goes too far in many ways at the moment (e.g. this). However, while rethinking the balance of the IP system is important, we can't do it right now. Again, people are dying and we need to act fast. When the pandemic is over, I'm all for a reconsideration of patent policies in general and how they relate to medicines in particular. (Bryan Mercurio and I tried to raise these issues a year ago, but didn't get much traction.)
What about the TRIPS waiver? I don't object, but I'm not sure it adds much to the existing exceptions and flexibilities. Does a TRIPS waiver give a bit more leeway to governments who want to do something that might not be in accordance with TRIPS? I guess it does. But WTO dispute settlement probably isn't a practical option for preventing governments from acting here anyway (even putting the Appellate Body crisis aside), and I'm not convinced that WTO rules are a real barrier to action. The key issue is the positions of the U.S. and other wealthy governments. If they will push for more licensing, we are in good shape, regardless of what is happening at the WTO.
Now, if the waiver is more of a negotiating tool for the talks governments are having with Pharma, it makes a little more sense to me. If that's what the big shift in the U.S. position on the waiver was designed for, I get it and I hope it helps get us to some more licensing arrangements. But it would be crazy, in my view, to wait for the waiver to be signed before pushing Pharma to do more licensing, as some news articles today seemed to imply would be the case. The talks with Pharma should be the priority. The WTO is a great place to discuss the big picture policies, but what's needed now is for governments, who are the ones with the power, to act.