The European Commission issued its report today on the public consultations it carried out on ISDS. (A fact sheet is here; press release is here).
Commissioner Malmström held a press conference, but there didn't seem to be much interest. (I think you can watch it here). Only two reporters asked questions. In response to the questions, Commissioner Malmström noted that a policy recommendation on ISDS would come in "the spring," and also that it was too early to say what the consultation meant for ISDS in the TTIP.
In terms of the content of the report, I glanced at it, but it's a lot to digest, so I don't have any deep thoughts at this point. My quick impression: There are a wide and diverse range of views on ISDS, from complete elimination, to expansion in various directions (stronger protections for investors, on the one hand; new regulations imposed on investors, on the other).
If I had to guess, I would say that the Commission's policy recommendations on this are going to look a lot like what they have already done with the CETA. My sense is they think that, in CETA, they have gotten the ISDS balance pretty much right.
Even if the executive branch has made up its mind, the question will ultimately be decided by the voters -- in both the EU and U.S., but the EU is the battleground right now -- through their elected representatives. It's hard to imagine a pure investment treaty passing in the EU/member state legislatures right now, but what about a package that includes other, more appealing forms of trade rules? The EU trade agreements with Canada and Singapore will, presumably, offer the first test of all this.
