Is it time to talk about the possibility of Scotland leaving the UK, and the implications for international economic law? Polls are showing that it could really happen. Maybe it will, maybe it won't. But I figure I should do this post now, because if the vote is against independence, no one will care about this anymore.
I see two main issues: Scotland's membership in the WTO, and its role in the investment treaty system. (Are there other issues?)
For both, its membership in the EU will be of great relevance. An independent Scotland will try to accede to the EU, and eventually be permitted to do so, presumably. Thus, as an EU member state, it will be part of any investment obligations the EU takes on (e.g., in the CETA and TTIP) and be part of the WTO through the EU.
But EU member states are also part of the WTO as individual nations, so we should expect Scotland to negotiate that as well. Does that mean it has to go through a full WTO accession process? It's hard to believe there are too many issues that would hold up that process, given that it's already in the WTO right now through the UK membership. Or are there lingering issues out there, and other Members will try to extract more concessions?
And what about all those UK investment treaties Scotland will no longer be a part of? Will Scotland start to negotiate its own set of treaties? Will it come up with its own model BIT? Perhaps this depends in part on Scotland's investment situation. Are there big Scottish companies with foreign investment they want protected? Is Scotland concerned with being sued by foreign investors it is hosting?
If you have thoughts, post them now, because as I said, if the vote is no this issue will be gone from the public spotlight forever.
