There has been some talk of settling two big disputes, the U.S. - Cotton WTO dispute and the Chinese currency dispute. Cotton has progressed a bit further. USTR provides the following details:
... the United States agreed to work with Brazil to establish a fund of approximately $147.3 million per year on a pro rata basis to provide technical assistance and capacity building. Under terms to be agreed by the United States and Brazil in the Memorandum of Understanding, the fund would continue until passage of the next Farm Bill or a mutually agreed solution to the Cotton dispute is reached, whichever is sooner. The fund would be subject to transparency and auditing requirements.
The United States also agreed to make some near term modifications to the operation of the GSM-102 Export Credit Guarantee Program, and to engage with the Government of Brazil in technical discussions regarding further operation of the program. The United States also agreed to publish a proposed rule by April 16, 2010, to recognize the State of Santa Catarina as free of foot-and-mouth disease, rinderpest, classical swine fever, African swine fever, and swine vesicular disease, based on World Organization for Animal Health Guidelines and to complete a risk evaluation that is currently underway and identify appropriate risk mitigation measures to determine whether fresh beef can be imported from Brazil while preventing the introduction of foot-and-mouth disease in the United States.
Following implementation of these initial steps, the United States and the Government of Brazil agreed to continue engagement on these issues, with a view to agreeing on a process by June that will allow us to reach a mutually agreed solution to the Cotton dispute.
And in the currency dispute:
U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner will visit Beijing for talks with a Chinese vice premier for economic affairs on Thursday, Geithner's spokesman said, in a sign the two sides are moving toward settling a dispute over China's currency controls.
From the FT on the same issue:
China has begun to prepare the ground publicly for a shift in exchange rate policy, days after the US Treasury said it would postpone a decision on whether to name China a “currency manipulator”.
A senior government economist told reporters in Beijing on Tuesday China could widen the daily trading band for the renminbi and allow it to resume the gradual appreciation it halted in July 2008 in response to the global credit crisis.
I'm a little skeptical sometimes when settlements are announced, but perhaps progress is being made. One thing I wonder about in Cotton is, what do other U.S. trading partners think of all this? For example, how will the African cotton producers who were third parties in the dispute react to whatever "mutually agreed solution" is reached between the United States and Brazil? Will they be satisfied with what the U.S. eventually offers?
And in the currency dispute, I guess the big question is, assuming a "gradual appreciation" occurs, will it be enough to satisfy those pushing hardest for revaluation?
