A paper by Daniel Drache and Marc D. Froese suggests just that. From the abstract:
Deadlock in the Doha Round: The Long Decline of Trade Multilateralism
This paper argues that deadlock in the Doha Round of trade negotiations is due to the increasing complexity of economic globalization. It represents a transformative shift on the part of Member nations away from the current model of trade multilateralism and towards smaller negotiating platforms. We examine two main reasons for this changing pattern in international economic relations. First, with the rise of new global trading powers such as India, China and Brazil, the geopolitical playing field is in flux and the steady accumulation of political and market power in the global South has sapped the WTO’s forward momentum. The second factor in the decline of trade multilateralism is a cocktail of rigid rules, non-tariff protectionism, and a crisis of representation that throws sand in the institutional gears of multilateral trade. The paper concludes with a discussion of trade multilateralism in historical context. This is not the first time the world has been faced with systemic changes in international economic relations. In the 19th and the early 20th centuries, global trade broke down – first with the end of the British free trade system, and shortly thereafter with the catastrophic collapse of the interwar trading order. Nevertheless, this qualitative shift in the negotiating strategies of states need not be seen as a return to protectionism. The explosion of preferential trade agreements represents a compelling political and economic logic of mutual advantage, and may be a more effective way of addressing the social and political dimensions of economic integration.
Here's a bit more from the conclusion:
Trade multilateralism cannot be sustained by clever legalistic juggling and ambitious bureaucrats trained in the dark arts of public relations. Multilateralism is in for a rough ride as the US, EU and other regional powers look for new frames within which to pursue their strategic interests. The golden era of postwar trade multilateralism is over. A new configuration of collective economic regulation is on the rise. Perhaps the clearest indication of this regime shift is the slow death of the Doha Round.
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There are two predictions for the future of the trading system. Optimists predict a soft landing for the round; after a pause in negotiations, members will finally agree to a comprehensive deal although it might be smaller than what was hoped for in 2001. Pessimists predict a hard landing for the WTO; deadlock at Doha will drive deal making towards a ‘spaghetti bowl’ of many different bilateral and regional arrangements. According to neoliberal economists, this weakens the multilateral system because many small regional arrangements undermine the most-favoured nation principle enshrined in the GATT. We think that the latter regime shift towards a more regional approach to integration is the more realist outcome because the regionalization process is well underway and has accelerated throughout the past six years of Doha negotiations. This hard landing is not necessarily a bad thing for the world trading system. As we have argued above, open borders and moderate protectionism can coexist. As we look ahead we have to ask ourselves the most significant question – what role will the WTO’s governance model play in the upcoming era of new priorities and evolving alliances? Will it even survive these seismic shifts in power?
More papers from Professor Drache are available on his web page here.
