Here's another item from the Katherine Tai event at the University of Chicago last week:
Q: So let's go back to that comment you made about McDonald's, and that old theory that if there were a McDonald's in two countries, they would never go to war. How much does what's happened between Russia and Ukraine upend accepted wisdom about trade making the world more safe?
Tai: I think that it's really important in terms of causing all of us to take another look at the assumptions that we've made. I think we can debate this, because I know that there are lots of smart people here and that I was told, the University of Chicago is about theory and concepts. You know, whether peace is necessary for prosperity, or prosperity is necessary for peace. And I think between those two, my gut is that peace is probably more necessary for prosperity than prosperity is for peace. And it turns out that just trading a lot with each other and having a lot of economic dependencies, I don't think is enough to guarantee peace. And again, remember I'm not trained as an economist. I'm also not trained as a foreign policy expert either, right. But my issue area exists at the intersection of these two very powerful disciplines. But from what I perceive, Vladimir Putin's decision to invade Ukraine was not an economic decision. And so, in many ways then, that decision was made despite the economics and the economic repercussions, many of which were entirely predictable in terms of the impacts on energy markets and food security.
To me, recent criticism of the "trade promotes peace" idea has been off the mark. The argument was never that "trade guarantees peace" or "trade prevents all war." Rather, the "accepted wisdom" has always been that trade contributes to peaceful relations. In the remarks quoted above, Tai specifically criticizes the "trade guarantees peace" position, so I think at this point maybe we can just all agree that "trade promotes peace but does not guarantee it." As I said, I think this is what everyone agreed on before, but anyway let's now make it official. (Unless someone wants to push back and argue that economic nationalism promotes peace better than trade does, in which case have at it in the comments!)
