U.S. Representatives Earl Blumenauer and Lloyd Doggett are introducing legislation to "end Permanent Normal Trade Relations (PNTR) with the Russian Federation and to initiate a process to formally deny Russia access to the World Trade Organization (WTO), following its unprovoked invasion of Ukraine."
The legislation is here. Its main provisions are as follows:
SEC. 2. WITHDRAWAL OF NORMAL TRADE RELATIONS TREATMENT WITH THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION.
Notwithstanding the provisions of title I of the Russia and Moldova Jackson-Vanik Repeal and Sergei Magnitsky Rule of Law Accountability Act of 2012 (Public Law 112–208; 19 U.S.C. 2434 note) or any other provision of law, effective on the date of the enactment of this Act—
(1) normal trade relations treatment shall not apply pursuant to section 102 of that Act to the products of the Russian Federation; and
(2) normal trade relations treatment may thereafter be extended to the products of the Russian Federation only in accordance with the provisions of chapter 1 of title IV of the Trade Act of 1974 (19 U.S.C. 2431 et seq.), as in effect with respect to the products of the Russian Federation on the day before the effective date of the accession of the Russian Federation to the World Trade Organization.
SEC. 3. COOPERATION WITH UNITED STATES ALLIES AND PARTNERS.
(a) IN GENERAL.—The President shall encourage allies and partners of the United States—
(1) to consider taking similar actions such as the withdrawal of permanent normal trade relations treatment for products of the Russian Federation; and
(2) to condemn the Russian Federation’s recent aggression in Ukraine at the World Trade Organization (WTO).
(b) ACCOUNTABILITY AT THE WTO.—The President shall direct the U.S. Permanent Mission to the World Trade Organization to use the voice, vote, and influence of the United States at the WTO to seek the suspension of the Russian Federation’s membership in the WTO.
The domestic law aspect of this new legislation seems pretty straightforward. If this law is enacted, permanent normal trade relations for Russia will end and we will go back to a requirement of regular confirmation of Russia's normal trade relations status. Given Russia's invasion of Ukraine, it's safe to assume that normal trade relations would not be granted at least until that conflict is resolved.
The international part of the legislation is more complicated. It first says that the President shall "encourage allies and partners of the United States" to do two things: 1) do the equivalent of withdrawing permanent normal trade relations themselves; 2) condemn Russia's Ukraine aggression at the WTO.
The process for kicking Russia out of normal MFN treatment will depend on each country's domestic legal system. I wonder how many countries would be willing to do that. Possibly many, but certainly not all.
With regard to condemning Russia at the WTO, maybe a few countries will agree to this, but I can imagine many countries arguing that the WTO is not the right forum for this.
As to the last point about "seek the suspension" of Russia's WTO membership, I'm not sure exactly what they have in mind here. Former WTO Secretariat official Peter Ungphakorn tweeted about these issues yesterday, and I'm not sure I have anything more to add. I feel like this would be difficult to accomplish, and just focusing on the practical issue of excluding Russia from normal trade treatment would be the easier route.
One other point about Russia and the WTO is the impact of all this on ongoing disputes involving Russia. There are several of these, and two of them are just getting going: The EU requested consultations on Russian wood export measure in January (and just submitted a revised request); and a panel was just composed in the Russian Federation - Certain Measures Concerning Domestic and Foreign Products and Services (DS604) case brought by the EU. I assume these disputes will be put on hold.
