A few people I know who are big supporters of North American integration worried a bit about what the TPP might do to NAFTA. To some extent, it seemed as though NAFTA would get folded into the TPP. If that happened, would everybody just forget about NAFTA? The momentum for North American integration certainly seemed to be fading.
Counterintuitively, given a lot of what we have heard so far, is it possible that Trump is the best thing to happen to NAFTA? (If he doesn't destroy it, of course). Here is something his Treasury Secretary nominee Steve Mnuchin said at his confirmation hearing:
On renegotiating NAFTA, [Mnuchin] said existing work on the proposed Trans-Pacific Partnership – a 12-country deal that included the three NAFTA members and was dismissed by Mr. Trump – would be used as a “starting point” for the discussions.
So let's say that many of the innovations of the TPP -- on labor, environment, IP, ISDS, e-commerce, etc. -- are brought over into the NAFTA. Is this a good thing for North American integration? Does it reinvigorate the push to develop closer ties between Canada, Mexico, and the U.S, which the TPP would have undermined? Will NAFTA now be at the cutting edge of trade agreements, as it once was? The scholarly field of North American studies could be booming again!
Or am I trying too hard to find a silver lining here?
