The Chicago Council on Global Affairs has a new poll on Americans' views on trade issues. Their results showed a lot of support for free trade, which surprised me a bit given the current campaign rhetoric. Here's what they found on the TPP:
Perhaps no other trade agreement has been held up to signify the negative aspects of trade more than the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), the trade pact including the United States and twelve Asia-Pacific and Western Hemispheric nations. On August 11 Hillary Clinton reiterated her opposition to TPP stating, “I oppose it now, I’ll oppose it after the election, and I’ll oppose it as president.” Donald Trump also has emphatically opposed to the deal declaring, “Not only will the TPP undermine our economy, but it will undermine our independence.”
Despite criticism from political figures on both sides of the aisle, six in ten (60%) Americans support the TPP, down slightly from support in 2015 (64%) and 2014 (63%). Specifically, seven in ten Democrats (71%), six in ten Republicans (58%), and a bare majority of Independents (52%) support the trade deal. Among Democrats fewer core Sanders supporters, but still a majority, favor the TPP (56%, vs. 74% of core Clinton supporters). Among Republicans, only half of core Trump supporters (47%) support the TPP, while a majority of those who supported another candidate for president favor signing the deal (58%).
Could that really be true? You see "No TPP" signs all over the place, but no "Yes TPP" signs anywhere. And, as the Chicago Council notes, both major party candidates are anti-TPP (Donald Trump being extremely anti-TPP, Hillary Clinton being moderately against; only Gary Johnson is for it). If the voters are actually for the TPP, why isn't their voice being heard?
Sometimes poll questions are phrased badly, but I checked with the Chicago Council people, and here's what they asked:
"As you may know, the United States is now negotiating a free trade agreement with twelve Pacific nations called the Trans-Pacific Partnership (or TPP). Based on what you know, do you strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose or strongly oppose this free trade agreement?"
So there's no flaw in the phrasing of the question. That's a good way to ask it.
Here was the exact breakdown on the TPP question:
|
I strongly support it |
I Somewhat support it |
I Somewhat oppose it |
I strongly oppose it |
Not sure/ Decline |
Total |
|
8 |
52 |
24 |
9 |
7 |
100 |
So what's the explanation? Is it just that nobody who is for the TPP is willing to stand up publicly in favor of it? And that the TPP is a only minor issue for them in the Presidential campaign, so they are not bothered if their preferred candidate opposes it? In the "strongly oppose" category, is there an additional sub-category of people who oppose it so strongly that they will stage public protests?
