This is from Inside US Trade:
The Campaign for Tobacco-Free Kids, a U.S. anti-smoking group, is actively lobbying Democratic members of Congress hoping to sway them in support of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) based on the argument that the agreement's tobacco carveout is a major public health victory, according to the head of the organization.
"We have made clear to many longtime tobacco control supporters -- including many Democrats -- that we think that the TPP carveout is significant" and that they ought to support the agreement, Matthew Meyers, president of the Campaign told Inside U.S. Trade in an interview on Jan. 13.
Meyers would not reveal which lawmakers the group is targeting, and was cautious when asked whether he thought the effort was proving successful.
With a vote on TPP still a long ways away, he said, it is premature to say how heavily the tobacco issue will weigh into members' considerations -- especially those who oppose TPP on other grounds. "But for those on the fence," he added, "our message is, 'this is a very important.'"
So the President of an anti-tobacco group is lobbying for the TPP, not because of the free trade parts, but because it carves tobacco out of the TPP's investment provisions to some extent. Presumably, he thinks this sets a good precedent for the overall relationship of trade and tobacco in international law. This precedent is so important to him that he is willing to campaign for the TPP even though its main focus has nothing to do with tobacco, and even though it lowers tobacco tariffs, which many anti-tobacco folks object to.
When the Obama administration was strategizing about how to get the TPP through Congress, they must have done some calculations about how to package and market the agreement. As part of this, they seem to have decided to pursue some liberal votes at the risk of losing some conservative votes. By carving tobacco out of ISDS, they hoped they would end up with enough votes for TPP to pass, with additional Democratic votes outnumbering lost Republican votes.
But did they do this calculation correctly? It appears they have gotten at least one liberal interest group on board with the lobbying effort. But will this lobbying convince any Democratic members of Congress to support TPP? That remains to be seen.
As for the Republicans, we have already heard that a number of members of Congress -- mostly Republicans, I think -- might vote against the TPP based on the carveout. But those members have other constituents who will support the TPP for other reasons. Will they really vote against the TPP based solely on the treatment of tobacco?
This was a big gamble by the Obama administration, and it's not clear to me how it will play out. As much as governments continue to insist that the TPP cannot be renegotiated at this point, I can't help wondering if there is a compromise of some sort out there, such as a general exception provision that provides flexibility for taking public health (and other) measures, but without targeting a specific product. I would think public health groups (and others) would be very happy with a general exception; and the tobacco folks would prefer not to have tobacco singled out. On the other hand, there would likely be objections from business groups and international arbitration specialists, who have a lot of influence. That might mean we are stuck with the tobacco carveout, at least until we see how the Congressional vote goes.
