As everyone has probably heard by now, negotiators could not reach a TPP deal in Maui. Here's a roundup of some commentary:
High-level talks to forge a 12-nation trade deal spanning the Pacific broke up Friday without resolving contentious disputes over Canadian dairy tariffs, the protection of cutting-edge drugs known as “biologics” and Japanese access to the North American automobile market.
In an interview, New Zealand Trade Minister Tim Groser indicated that the negotiations broke down over the auto issues and that, because of this, parties never really advanced to a high-pressure negotiation on dairy.
There was “too much time clearing away this other undergrowth, and then the autos issues stood up as this other gnarled root, and there just wasn't enough time, and it was clear that people were never going to have the political base to reassess a few simple questions about their negotiating position … on both autos and dairy,” he said.
Some blame lies with Canada, an otherwise open trading nation that insists on pampering the boutique dairy farmers of Quebec. Some blame sits with Mexico, which lavishes taxpayer money on second-rate cars.
But true responsibility lies with an Obama administration that was too weak, too presumptuous and far too late in lobbying its case.
So what happened on the ground in Hawaii? There will be much finger pointing and recriminations in the wake of the talks.
If I had to put my own finger on it, the immediate cause of collapse can be traced to Canada’s refusal to discuss dairy in any meaningful way until the final 3 days of negotiations. This was, as I have previously noted, a high risk strategy.
...
Mexico, which has been defending its special access to the NAFTA markets all along in various sectors, suddenly came forward to object to rules of origin (ROOs) around autos. The current NAFTA provisions call for 65 percent content from NAFTA countries. These rules have helped make Mexico into an automotive powerhouse and the possibility of lowering the percentage of content required in the TPP led to strong Mexican objections.
With the unraveling of autos and the contested dairy elements of the agreement, various other complaints from different TPP members must have risen to a crescendo. ...
FT:
The timing of that next meeting was unclear, however. Some reports pointed to a gathering not being held until as late as November, in part because elections are due in Canada in October and Ottawa’s reluctance to remove trade barriers protecting its politically-sensitive dairy industry represents one of the major sticking points.
Akira Amari, Japan's minister in charge of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) talks, said Friday (July 31) after the conclusion of a four-day meeting that failed to yield a deal that he and his counterparts share a common understanding that they should meet again before the end of August.
... Hawaii really did represent the last, best chance for a deal in the near term. Ministers have apparently decided to reconvene on the sidelines of APEC in November to try again.
The cold logic of deadlines, however, shows that a deal reached in November is not going to be helpful. Recall that once the officials agree on a draft text, this is not the end. Instead, internal procedures in the United States (and others) means a delay of at least 90 days prior to final signatures on the agreement. Entry into force is even further off.
