Victoria Guida of Politico reports:
Matthew Goodman, a former White House adviser on Asia-Pacific issues, said Monday that he expects the political fight over the Trans-Pacific Partnership to happen mostly in the context of a vote on legislation to renew trade promotion authority.
“I don’t think a TPA vote is going to be pushed until both parties feel like they know what they’re buying in TPP,” he told POLITICO after an event hosted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, where he is the political economy chair.
Goodman predicted the situation might unfold like this: Congress will begin to move on TPA, prompting Japan to present its bottom line, which in turn could allow the U.S. and Japan to reach a bilateral market access deal in the first quarter of the year. Then, when TPA legislation comes up for a vote, members of Congress would be able to see a general outline of what TPP is expected to include before making a decision.
“So when TPP finally comes before Congress, [members can ask their staffers], ‘Does this comport with what I voted for when I voted for TPA?’” Goodman said. He added that the politics surrounding TPA and TPP could therefore all be largely settled by June.
I had a different impression of how things might play out. I thought there might be a somewhat muted debate on the vague language of TPA, with Congressional passage difficult, but achievable. Then later there would be a much more contentious debate about TPP, when everyone saw the full details. That vote would be a lot harder.
But as with all things politics, I'm not sure I really know much of anything.
