The big, and not unexpected, news of yesterday is that Republicans now control both houses of Congress, for the first time since 2006. One thing this will do is help the GOP to set the agenda on trade policy and trade negotiations. So what will they do with their newfound power?
Gary Hufbauer is fairly confident that they will use their power constructively to push for the completion and approval of trade deals. His argument makes some sense. Many Republicans actually believe trade is good, and they have business supporters who agree, so it's kind of a win-win -- do the right thing and get rewarded for it.
At the same time, other Republicans really don't like President Obama, and may be focusing on making his life miserable in various ways, and more generally thinking about how best to play politics. One question in the minds of this group may be, how can they make Democrats the most uncomfortable on trade policy?
Maybe it would be enough to concede to most of what Obama wants out of a trade deal, so that he is forced to move ahead with it and thereby alienate some anti-globalization, protectionist liberals in the Democratic base. On the other hand, they might try to push things further, and demand TPA legislation that makes him really squirm (e.g., tearing up parts of the May 10 agreement). Or, they might have specific issues that they feel strongly about (e.g., soon-to-be Senate Majority leader McConnell is from tobacco-producing state Kentucky, and may not like the idea of a tobacco carve-out).
Will their focus be on getting trade deals done, or on getting the most they can out of trade politics? One thing about power is, you don't really know how you will use it until you get it. The Republicans have important choices going forward, in general and on trade. Let's see what they decide to do. But if they want TPA to pass, they should be able to make that happen.
Of course, that's probably the easiest part of all this. Finishing negotiations on the TPP, and getting it through Congress, will be a lot harder.
(As I was writing this, I saw this piece by Shawn Donnan of the FT, who seems positive about the situation, although with a few of the same caveats I put out there.)
