A guest post from Christoph Herrman:
Lisbon Treaty's Future Uncertain
On June 12, the people of Ireland in constitutionally required referendum rejected the "Lisbon Treaty" which would bring about significant changes to the Treaties forming the legal fundament of the European Union and the European Community, its most important part. As a consequence the future of the Lisbon Treaty is uncertain, since it can only enter into force - initially envisaged for 1 January 2009 - after ratification by all the 27 Member States of the European Union. Apart from all the other serious impacts on the European Integration process, this is also of great significance to international trade policy. Well known, the EC's competencies in the field of WTO law were always contested and to some extent unclear. At present, the EC has no exclusive competence for the whole body of agreements under the WTO, which is the reason for the peculiar mixed membership of both, the EC and its Member States in the WTO. Under the Lisbon Treaty, this situation would have changed dramatically. After its entry into force, the then European Union (which would replace the EC legally) would have the exclusive competence for trade in goods, services, trade-related aspects of intellectual property rights and foreign investment. Rumor has it that the EC Commission already circulates papers stating that under the Lisbon Treaty, the Doha Round would have been concluded only by the EC but not by its Member States, which in turn would give rise to difficult questions under the amendment provision of the WTO agreement.
Furthermore, the Lisbon Treaty would have established full participation of the European Parliament in WTO matters, something which does not exist in present. This would have shifted the power dramatically, since EP-participation does at the same time diminish the role of the Commission significantly: under the then applicable procedure, the EP and the Council can adopt legislation which is based on a proposal by a Commission but may have undergone substantial changes during the legislative procedures. Allegedly, this was the reason that the EC's trade commissioner Peter Mandelson made efforts to reform the EC's trade defence instruments last year, an effort that failed due to lack of support by the Member States in the Council.
With the Lisbon Treaty at least being significantly delayed - there is talk about repeating the Irish referendum once all other Member States have ratified the Lisbon Treaty - the EC's participation in the WTO will remain unchanged for at least another one to two years. After a still possible entry into force of the Lisbon Treaty, ratification of any possible Doha Round Result will be more difficult for the reasons above.
