I think the Costa Rican vote on CAFTA is pretty close to decided. Reuters reports that with "ballots from nearly 74 percent of polling stations" counted, "[a]lmost 52 percent of voters backed the Central American Free Trade Agreement, or CAFTA, while 48 percent voted against it." And a Costa Rican friend of mine (and CAFTA supporter) emails "We won the referendum!"
I must say that I had my doubts based on earlier reports. This older Reuters report noted that "[a] poll last week in La Nacion newspaper showed Costa Ricans rejecting the trade deal by 55 percent to 43 percent." And Global Trade Watch's blog just recently said that "[at about 5:30 PM EST, a leader from the "no" campaign predicted a 10% point win, and said that there had been 70% turnout." But these predictions seem to have been off the mark.
If this is, in fact, the result, then we won't have to test whether the Bush administration would make good on its "threat."
