The Independent Evaluation Group of the World Bank has released a study of the Bank's advice on trade. Part of the executive summary (pp xiv-xv) is worth quoting in full:
Bank clients that obtained loans to support trade reform experienced higher
economic growth rates in the medium term (3–6 years) following trade reform, and their growth rates exceeded those independent reformers that reformed without the financial support of the Bank. Both groups of reformers also experienced dramatic increases in import demand, although this effect lasted longer for Bank-supported reformers. However, Bank-supported reformers exhibited a modest supply response, suggesting that trade liberalization alone was not sufficient—a finding supported by recent research in this area. The gains in economic growth were often driven by domestic demand arising from improved resource allocation, rather than just export expansion. The employment and poverty outcomes associated with trade reforms were mixed, and the Bank did not conduct sufficient analysis to inform its policy advice and lending on this issue or systematically measure the outcomes.
The "IEG" also criticized the Bank for insufficient analytical attention to distributional outcomes.
